She says no, but new poll shouts 'run'
October 31, 2003

New York Daily News

Hillary Clinton has a 43% problem.

That's the percentage of Democratic voters who want her as their party's nominee in 2004, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted last week. Clinton's nearest competitor is Gen. Wesley Clark, with 10%. None of the other eight candidates is even in double digits.

This isn't a lead, it's a mandate. It means that senator from New York can very likely have the nomination simply by reaching for it.

The average pol would already have a stranglehold on the nomination. But Clinton has promised not to run, and she has a good reason to keep her promise. It is very unlikely she could beat President Bush in 2004.

For one thing, the President's tax cuts are kicking in. The economy is growing faster than it has since 1984. Things could go bad before November 2004, but nobody's betting they will.

Then there's the war. This week, Clinton delivered a stiff, partisan attack on the administration'shandling of Iraq, the war on terror and the doctrine of preemption. This has prompted speculation that the senator might be staking out a dovish position for a run against Bush.

But Clinton isn't Clark or even John Kerry. She has no national security experience. Short of total disaster, the first female presidential candidate can't win a wartime election running as a dove. The Republicans would ask a simple question: Whom do you want up against Osama Bin Laden, Bush or Clinton? If your answer is Clinton, you're in a minority.

That's reflected in another Quinnipiac finding. Among registered voters, Bush beats every Democratic contender. But he beats Clinton by a wider margin than any of the other first-tier candidates. The President leads her by eight points - and that's before the brutal personal and political going-over she'd be sure to get from the Bush machine.

Under the circumstances, waiting until 2008 seems prudent. It would give the senator time to put more distance between herself and the character issues still hanging over her from the last Clinton administration. It would allow her to accumulate some national security credentials. And it would enable her eventually to run against an opponent who is not an incumbent wartime President presiding over a prosperous economy.

The reasonable angel on Clinton's shoulder says "wait." But the devil is whispering 43% in her ear. Clinton is a cool customer, but she's got to be tempted. After all, she is a politician. And no politician in living memory has ever walked away from a can't-miss presidential nomination.